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Estimated U.S. Firearms Sales In July 2020 Increased Year-Over-Year By 134.6% !!

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Article first appeared on Ammoland.com

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GREENVILLE, SC, USA & HALIFAX, NS, CANADA) – -(AmmoLand.com)- Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) estimates July 2020 U.S. firearms unit sales at 2.0 million units, a year-over-year increase of 134.6% from July 2019.

Estimated U.S. firearms unit sales in July 2020 increased year-over-year by 134.6%. The unprecedented sales boom continues for yet another month.

Likely single handgun sales (1.2 million) increased year-over-year by 152.0% whereas single long-gun sales (0.6 million) increased year-over-year by 108.2%. All other likely background check-related sales (0.16 million) increased year-over-year by 125.3%. This includes so-called “multiple” sales where the exact split between handguns and long-guns cannot be determined from the data record.

Detailed data are available for purchase at SmallArmsAnalytics.com/shop/.

SAAF’s firearms unit sales estimates are based on raw data taken from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), adjusted for checks unlikely to be related to end-user firearms sales. For example, the FBI’s raw numbers (for July, some 3,614,192) cannot be taken at face value as large numbers of background checks are unrelated to end-user sales. As a case in point, in July the state of Kentucky conducted about 260,000 so-called permit checks and rechecks alone whereas end-user unit sales at firearms retailers likely amounted to about 37,000. SAAF makes certain other adjustments to the data based on retailer reports and other information; nonetheless, the estimates still likely understate the true number of sales.

SAAF Chief Economist Jurgen Brauer comments that “the firearms market continues at its far accelerated pace. Our estimates suggest that the market for the first seven months of 2020 now has nearly matched that of the entire year of 2019.”

Unadjusted FBI/NICS raw data versus SAAF-adjusted NICS data (January 2000 to July 2020)
Unadjusted FBI/NICS raw data versus SAAF-adjusted NICS data (January 2000 to July 2020) The FBI/NICS unadjusted raw data are increasingly misleading as indicators of firearms demand. The FBI itself cautions not to equate its numbers with unit sales, hence the need for data adjustment. The cumulate difference between the unadjusted and adjusted numbers reaches a count of over 110 million.

ABOUT Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting

Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) is a research consultancy focusing on the business & economics of the global small arms and ammunition markets. Politically unaffiliated, SAAF is an independent, evidenced-based resource for industry, advocacy, research, and policymaking alike, as well as for financial analysts and members of the media.

Among other services, SAAF produces forecasts of U.S. civilian firearms unit sales, nationwide and for most states. Small Arms AnalyticsSM and Small Arms Analytics & ForecastingSM are legally protected Service Marks of Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting. (Contact [email protected] for sales and other information.)

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